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A statistical and analytical analysis on the effects or lack of by glyphosate on Avian Cholera.

The research data was gathered from the quarterly reports of wildlife mortality events as investigated by the USGS National Wildlife Health Center. http://www.nwhc.usgs.gov/publications/quarterly_reports/index.jsp

These events run from 1981 to 2014 on the website. Several quarterly reports are missing. The data and analysis was done on the available reports, along with phone and email correspondence with multiple state and federal biologists and area managers.

The conclusions of the data is that there is no statistical or factual evidence that shows that glyphosate or increased usage of glyphosate increases avian cholera rates. In fact, the data clearly shows that as glyphosate usage has increased the incidences of avian cholera have decreased. I am not saying that using glyphosate decreases avian cholera, I am saying the data says that as glyphosate usage has increased, the incidences of avian cholera have gone down. I cannot say that this is due to usage of glyphosate I am merely reporting the facts as they exist today.

A multitude of trends have been brought to life in this study which have not been previously discussed here. After observing the trends, I then began reaching out to biologists and area managers to confirm the information the trends pointed out. Much to my surprise the biologists and managers confirmed what the data analysis shows. After reviewing the analysis I began an investigation of the bacterium Pasteurella Multocida which is thought to cause avian cholera. The information I began reading seems to confirm why the analysis is what it is.

In a nutshell here are the key points of the analysis.

• The study period was from 1981 to 2014, 34 years, an analysis was done of every single event reported

• The Pacific flyway accounts for 60.97% of all AC events (300) and 72.8% of mortality

• The Central flyway accounts for 22.56% of all AC events (111) and 17.91% of mortality

• The Mississippi flyway accounts for 16.06% of all AC events (79) and 5.55% of mortality

• The Atlantic flyway accounts for .41% of all AC events (2) and 3.77% of mortality

• The Pacific and Central flyways account for 83.53% of all AC events and 90.71% of mortality

Flyway Distribution.jpg

• 94.51% of the events occur in Q1 and Q4 of each year and 5.49% of events occur in Q2 and Q3

Cases By Quarter.jpg

• 29 states recorded AC events and 21 states had NO AC events.

state.png

• California had 265 events or 53.8% of the total for the US, Texas was 2nd with 34 events (6.91%), Nebraska was 3rd with 33 events (6.71%), Missouri was 4th with 27 events (5.49%) and Iowa was 5th with 24 events (5.44%). The top 5 states accounted for 77.8% of the events.

Events by state top 5.jpg

• 29 states had reported events, 21 states had NO reported events. 10 states reported only 1 event, 5 states had between 2-5 events, 6 states had 6-10 events and 8 states had 10 or more events.

• The smallest kill event reported was 2 birds, the largest was 155,000. The mean event size was 375 birds and the average event size was 1,892 birds.

• There were a total of 492 events reported and studied with 931,243 dead birds. The average was 14.5 events per year.

• Event sizes were as follows in number of deaths: 1-100 = 135; 101-500 = 140; 501-1,000 = 71; 1,001-5,000 = 112; 5,001-10,000 = 20; 10,001+ = 14

• The highest 5 year period of events was from 1987 to 1991 with 146 cases, the lowest 5 year period was from 2002 to 2006 with 28 cases

• The highest single year was 1987 with 33 cases (8M pounds of glyph was used that year) and the lowest was 2005 with 3 cases (160M pounds of glyph was used that year)

• The most common waterfowl found in AC events was Light Geese coming in at 57% of the time, the 2nd most common was Coots at 43% of the time, 3rd was Mallards at 31% of the time, 4th was Dark Geese at 27% of the time and 5th was Pintails at 23% of the time.

• During this same time, in Q2 there was 112 botulism events killing 46,249 birds and in Q3 there were 786 botulism events killing 2,212,841 birds.

• Avian Cholera is predominantly a Q1 & Q4 event (94.51%) and predominantly in the Pacific and Central flyways (83.53%).

• Many of the high event states have "cluster areas" where the events seem to be most prevalent.

• Many of the cluster areas report no usage of glyph on the WMA or NWR.

• The WMA & NWR areas that did report glyph usage showed no statistical increase or decrease of AC events pre glyph use versus glyph use.

Conclusions - There is no statistical or other evidence from the reports to prove or imply that glyphosate usage has any positive or negative impact on Avian Cholera instances and sizes of the instances. The Pacific and Central flyways are where AC is most prevalent. California alone accounts for nearly 54% of all AC events. Light Geese and coots are the most common waterfowl found in relations to AC incidences. The overall average of AC events is declining and is below the 34 year average for 13 of the last 15 most recent years despite the fact that glyph usage has gone from 80M pounds to over 350M pounds (438+% increase) during that same time period. Many states have significant glyph usage and report ZERO or ONE AC event in the 34 year period. States like NM have had all of their events, save one, in a single location and that specific location does not and has not used ANY glyph in the area of the AC events. For example, most of the states that have zero or one event have SIGNIFICANTLY more glyph usage than ID (6 AC events), UT (9 AC events), NM (15 AC events), OR (11 AC events) and CO (10 AC events). There is significant widespread usage of glyph in the Atlantic flyway, clearly more than is used in the Pacific flyway yet the Atlantic flyway only recorded 2 AC events and the Pacific flyway recorded 300 events. If there was ANY correlation between glyph usage and AC events this clearly would not be the case in disparity between the Pacific and Atlantic flyways. This clearly disproves any link between glyph usage and AC or increases in AC. In short, AC is an October-March disease mainly affecting the Pacific flyway and Central flyway and seems to be related to Light Geese and Coots.

After doing the analysis, I contacted a number of biologists and managers in the Pacific flyway and they related to me that it is very well known that they can expect AC to begin upon the arrivals of light Geese. Many of these same managers/biologists reported NO GLYPH USAGE on their areas. Michigan reported NO AC events yet uses glyph regularly for the control of phrag and other flora in many of their WMA's. Many of the southern states reported moderate to severe glyph usage on their areas with very few AC events (0-3) for the study period. According to studies, the presence of magnesium and chloride ions in the water enhances the survivability of the bacterium as well as the colder the water the longer the bacterium is able to survive. It is thought that light Geese could be a potential carrier for the bacterium but this has not been studied enough to determine. The fact that there are still mass die offs in Q2 and Q3 but due to botulism and not AC also supports the theory that AC is a "colder" disease. I'm sure there will be plenty of debate and discussion regarding the findings I have posted here, but regardless of your agreement or disagreement with my conclusion, you cannot disagree with the actual documented facts. The charts below will give a visual data set of the findings from the report data.

H_GLYPHOSATE_2012.png

Gly usage 1981-2014.jpg

Cases By Year.jpg

Cases by M# per Year.jpg

Glyph vs. Cases.jpg
 

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Thanks for posting the info. However, I must be missing something here. Other than the two references made about glyph during the highest 5 year and single year occurrence rates, I don't see any other information relative to the glyph. Were all the dead birds necropsied with the specific intent of looking for residuals of glyph? Or even some of them? Are you simply putting together numbers and making associations and calling them 'facts'? I'm just trying to understand what you are doing here, and the evidence you are using to make your stated conclusions about glyph. Seems like just a simple numerical analysis with unsubstantiated correlations concluded to be facts on your part, or maybe I'm wrong. :shock:

I appreciate the time you took to do this.
 

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Wow, that represents a lot of personal time spent in order to share the info with us on this forum. That is very cool. Thanks!
R
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Thanks for posting the info. However, I must be missing something here. Other than the two references made about glyph during the highest 5 year and single year occurrence rates, I don't see any other information relative to the glyph. Were all the dead birds necropsied with the specific intent of looking for residuals of glyph? Or even some of them? Are you simply putting together numbers and making associations and calling them 'facts'? I'm just trying to understand what you are doing here, and the evidence you are using to make your stated conclusions about glyph. Seems like just a simple numerical analysis with unsubstantiated correlations concluded to be facts on your part, or maybe I'm wrong. :shock:

I appreciate the time you took to do this.
Lobo, necropsies were done to determine the cause of death in the quarterly reports. If you go to the website I referenced in the article you will see each of those quarterly reports for the last 34 years (100+ reports). Glyph is not a cause of death. Some people have claimed that increasing the use of glyph has caused an increase in the incidences of avian cholera due to the affect it has on the environment and the bacteria that causes avian cholera. The statistical analysis shows that as glyph rates have increased there has been no increase in avian cholera rates, in fact rates have gone down. For glyph to be a contributing factor to avian cholera there would have to be a corresponding increase in avian cholera rates as the rates of glyph usage have increased. Glyph itself does not cause avian cholera which is the disease that we are investigating. By the way, this was a 100% sample. Not a partial sample. Every single event categorized as Avian Cholera or Suspect Avian Cholera was intensely evaluated and cataloged.
 

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I didn't read your post but I am going to blame sfw............. .........................................................................................................................and Obama.
 

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Tell us all again how safe pesticides are: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/16/us-usa-geese-idaho-idUSKBN0O100S20150516

There are hundreds more like Lost that will make you the same case for zinc phosphide. Zinc phoshide and glyphosate both start with the same basic ingredient, phosphorous. And in both cases it is the break down and metabolization of these poisons that is more toxic than the parent substance.

Pesticides, herbicides, insecticides, rodenticides, fungicides, and biocides all have two things in common. They are all poisons, and they all alter ecosystems with unintended and negative consequences. Many of these terms and substances are interchangeable.

Avian Cholera and Glyphosate: Glyphosate unbalances microbial ecosystems, suppressing good bacteria and favoring bad bacteria, such as Pasturellas, which is what Avian Cholera is. This affect is very notable with regard to Botulism.

http://www.netwerkvlv.nl/downloads/2012-Krueger, M-glyphosate effects.pdf

Another note on Pasturellas: This is the same family of pathogens responsible for the vast majority of Bighorn sheep pneumonia die offs of the last 20 years. Not glyphosate in those case, but rather a perfect coorelation between the use of 2,4-D and Dicamba, along with a few other herbicides on sheep winter ranges in multiple states.

So is glyphosate going to be listed as a cause of death, no. But when Avian Cholera is listed as a cause of death, the health or unhealthiness of the ecosystem where the outbreak occurred can and is influenced by the use of glyphosate, and other pesticides(umbrella term). Phrag does not kill ducks and geese, but pesticides do.

If you would like to read up on the other herbicide(Imazipic) that is also being used on phrag, and other habitat projects read here: http://westernwildlifeecology.org/sulfonylureas/

And for real world examples of how that use plays out, look here: http://westernwildlifeecology.org/education/

Much of this needs revisions and updates, but the basics are there with more to come.

The pesticide agenda is one of anti hunting, and anti conservation, a wolf in sheep's clothing.

I have seen this so many times now, I can spot this stuff 1000 miles away.

Glyphosate and fish: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01791.x/abstract
This particular case from New Zealand mirrors the case of Whirling disease here in the West. And parallels glyphostaes affects on bacteria. It is just that no one has done the definitive biochemistry in the specific case of Glyph and Avian Cholera. Again not a direct cause and effect case. Glyph increases snails, which increases the infectious agent they carry, thereby killing fish. This is complex ecology way over the head of a lost guy from a swamp that lies on the internet about having degrees in biology and forestry.

Moose and glyphosate: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s002449900255
If you read up on moose declines in the upper midwest and other areas you will sea that they carry very high loads of liver flukes, which are also increased by glyph use.

Lost has not disproven anything in his "analysis". Its barely a summary of a subject he knows very little about.
 
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