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I was sniffing around at Lowe's yesterday and walked through the lumber department. OMG $40 for 7/16" osb! Over $8 for a 2x4!

I'm thankful I don't have any projects in the works.
 

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This has been a big deal for a while now. People building homes are going to get some really sticker shock when they see the increase in materials cost alone.
 

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Yea I know someone who was getting ready to do the lumber package order for a new home, its risen $40k since they applied for their building permit.

People think this is a temporary thing, I don't. I think this is the new norm... from lumber to bullets to $100k trucks. No matter what the government calls inflation (and that its still low), the consumer is seeing dramatic inflation costs.

-DallanC
 

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Inflation will certainly be an issue, and maybe we’re seeing the impact already, but the lumber issue is a real supply problem from what I’ve been told.

I’ve spoken to some in the biz and they tell me the fires last year coupled with factory shut downs for covid combined to decimate the supply chain.
 

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Lumber will be nuts for another year from market analysis and they are saying it will never likely recover to pre-pandemic levels. It sounds like a perfect storm of pandemic lumberyard shutdowns, hobby building, massive increase in home buyers, and a depleted beetle kill lumber industry (artificially deflated prices for too long) in Canada.

Its nuts.

I'm nervous as we need to buy a car soon and the microchip shortage plus rental agencies buying billions of dollars in new cars (after selling off fleets last year because of pandemic) isn't going to bode well for my household.

Everything I'm reading is we are in for a bumpy road ahead as the global supply chain remains stressed.
 

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I work in construction and cringe every time I put a job out for bid.

I too have two decking projects that need done. I'm really regretting not doing them in 2019.

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After 16 years of planning to move and never doing it, we finally started talking about just doing an addition on our home instead of trying to buy a slightly bigger house in this market. Not sure which prospect is scarier!

And yes, I expect the lumber market to correct eventually, but prices won’t ever be what they were in January 2020 again.
 

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My nephew just broke ground on a 2,000 sq ft addition in Eagle Mountain. His contractor is getting their lumber straight from the mill instead of the lumber yard and is saving quite a bit on it.

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Try finding a home builder right now that will let you pick your lot and house plan. Nope! They are all Spec homes being built and they put a price on them when completed. They call you, and 20 others that are on a waiting list and you start bidding up from the asking price.
My daughter picked a 1/2 acre building lot, and a house plan 3 months ago and signed a contract. I hope the builder doesn't try to raise the price on her. I know from talking to Richmond Homes and Perry Homes lumber prices have increased $30k for an average home build.
 

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Our friends recently got screwed on building plans and are now sitting on a lot. Neither party is at fault. But lumber isn't the only variable driving up costs.

We want to do an addition but I'm guessing it will be 2023 (onwards) before the general contractors we are interested in are willing to take a small project like ours.
 

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We got lucky. I think wormandbobber is feeling some stress from the market (he's half way done with his new house). My younger brother is just getting started on his new home -- and it's going to cost him about $200k more than it would have last year. Yikes.

We broke ground in June of 2020. We were right in front of that "bubble". We had no delays on materials, and no price increases from our original bid, which was created in late January 2020. Like I said, we got lucky. Many others did not.

My younger brother tried to use the builder that I used. My builder couldn't even give him a bid -- his framers wouldn't accept any new "custom" home jobs because they are on the duplex gravy train stretched out to the horizon. Easy money for the framers. Custom home builders are taking a hit - as mentioned before, they are dropping custom jobs.

I'm just happy that we found the lot we wanted, and decided the timing was right. Had we waited at all, we'd have been in a mess. As it is now, we're sitting in our awesome new home where the only neighbor noise we hear is the bahing of newborn sheep and the whine from the pivot slowly turning in circles. We love it.
 
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I work with the big builders and one of them told me he can’t quote a price on a new home and now quotes a price range due to fluctuating lumber costs.
 

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Crazy. How do you go under contract for an undetermined price?

This bubble will burst eventually.
 

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Crazy. How do you go under contract for an undetermined price?

This bubble will burst eventually.

Yeah. Can you imagine being told that your new home will cost $500-$550K? No idea if your budget will allow for that range or not?
 

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I'm not sure this bubble will burst though, at least not anytime soon. The market will slow but currently this isn't being driven by the factors we've seen in the last 2-3 boom/bust housing cycles. I'm trying to read as much as possible on the current trend and most experts I'm reading don't know how to judge this price spike from historical comparisons. Everything from lending trends to migration patterns make this look like a sustainable price increase for the region. I would have never guessed it in a million years that my house would double in value in less than 5 years but here we are.

I truly feel for my friends that didn't commit before March 2020. I have at least two sets of friends sitting on lots that can't afford the prices to build custom now, not to mention actually finding builders to take it on as discussed. And when they do build they are looking at 60-80% above previous estimates or half the house. Their wages didn't remotely jump enough to justify that change in mortgage.

My wife and I got lucky buying when we did in Cedar. The long term issue will be what do we do when we outgrow this place? We have a ton of equity but everything in the area is now so expensive. We can't afford to buy a bigger home that now costs the same as a beautiful 2500 sq ft home in a gated community in a resort town in the south (actual comparison to a family member owned property). Who would have ever guessed that my parents would have to sell two homes to afford a comparable home in Cedar City?
 

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Not ju
Yeah. Can you imagine being told that your new home will cost $500-$550K? No idea if your budget will allow for that range or not?
Not just 500-550. What 450-600?

Backcountry, I will readily admit I’m not well-versed here. I have not studied up on causes or projections, but my gut tells me this isn’t sustainable. People are listing very small homes for $350k and selling them for 75k over asking price after the bidding war. I just can’t see it as sustainable. And banks aren’t going to open their coffers and give mortgages for $80k over appraised value. The money has to run out eventually. And when it does...I’ll be waiting! 😂
 
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