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Cal-Ranch has deal on chicks right now, buy 1 get 2 free. We were planning on rotating our flock this year anyway... but I wasnt in the mindset to get chicks until it warms up a bit more... next month or so. But... now we have a dozen peepers in a big box under a heatlight in the kitchen right now. Wife made an executive decision on the spot ... LOL.

-DallanC
 

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Discussion Starter · #102 ·
Cal-Ranch has deal on chicks right now, buy 1 get 2 free. We were planning on rotating our flock this year anyway... but I wasnt in the mindset to get chicks until it warms up a bit more... next month or so. But... now we have a dozen peepers in a big box under a heatlight in the kitchen right now. Wife made an executive decision on the spot ... LOL.

-DallanC
I'm guessing they sold out around a weeks time, give or take. I went to my local cal ranch to stock up on layer feed and they had plenty of chicks. Came back around a week later for some feather fixer and most of the bins were empty. Maybe a couple healthy chicks, but generally speaking what was left over looked sickly with pasty butt.

Sooo.... anyone else catch what Mr Potatohead said the other day about food? I mean, I kinda already figured it out on my own. I have to wonder though if it's going to start for more people to buy more grocceries and such. Not sure if i want to use the words "panic buy", at least not yet.

Always that suspension of disbelif and normality biases. Part of me doesn't want to believe what seems to be coming. Not meaning apocolpyse and the sky is falling, but economic ... neigh unto collapse, but not quite? Recession harder then 2008, maybe close to a depression? Skyrocketing food prices and maybe some more rioting and civil unrest around mid terms is a safe bet.

Hard to say one way or another, but it's a good bet it's going to get alot worse before it gets any better. I feel like a clock is ticking.
 

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I'm guessing they sold out around a weeks time, give or take.
They were all gone by the next morning. Entire store was cleared out. They probably ran the sale to make room for their next shipment. They get birds every few days. Our replacement flock is doing well, they are feathering up nicely.

As far as shortages, to try to find some wheat bread flour. Costco hasn't had any in ages. There's definitely a run going on for items... but its more behind the scenes than the last one that made the news.

-DallanC
 

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Discussion Starter · #105 · (Edited)
Ok here's some hard figures in the local economy in terms of groceries. Just digging around my purchase history. At the start of covid we turned to ordering our groceries online and picking them up at a drive through. It's a habit that's stuck mainly out of convenience now. So I've an archive of purchase history to dig through. Helps see through the fog of incrementalism.

Eggs, Greatland, 18 count:
  • 07Apr20 for $2.48
  • 11Apr22 is $4.12

Milk, 1%, Great value, 1 Gal:
  • 15Jul20 for $2.18
  • 11Apr22 is $3.69

Wheat Bread,Grandma Sycamore, 1 loaf
- 21May20 for $2.98
-11Apr22 for $3.24

Frozen peas:
- Much to my amazement, the price has remained stable from April 2020 to the present at $ 2.22

Kielbasa Sausage, hillshire farms
  • 19Apr20 for $2.96
  • 11Apr22 for $4.48

Coffeemate, powdered creamer, 35.3 oz
  • 19Apr20 for $4.63
  • 11Apr22 for $6.42

Chips, Tostidos scoops, 14.5 oz bag
-28Jun20 for $3.98
-11Apr22 for $4.48

Maxwell house Coffee. Price hasn't changed from 2020.


A few items actually dropped in price, but like peppers or bacon, but I suspect that maybe the product is reaching the end of it's shelf life so they're discounting it. Meat and dairy is clearly being hit hard in price, followed by certain wheat related products. Given current news/national trend, this is only going to increase for the foreseeable future.

Has anyone given any thought as to what might happen if food become unaffordable or unavailable?

edit: since i'm on the subject.
Keyword "Global food crises",News section, two different search engines, showing results for the last month:

 

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Has anyone given any thought as to what might happen if food become unaffordable or unavailable?
Unaffordable: People with little money will move to cheaper food sources. In the 1980's people used to joke about the elderly eating dog/cat food etc etc. IDK, people will find something to eat, but the shift will be to cheap simple food.

Unavailability: The big costal citys will melt down first, decent people who would never commit a crime will start doing what it takes to feed their children. Robbery, Crime will skyrocket. That will lead to an exodus to surrounding areas... ie: think Grapes of Wrath

In rural Utah, there's more food available. Lots of horse trading with farmers / ranchers. There will be lots of poaching.

I saw a few stores are now not putting steaks out on shelves, due to theft. You have to go to the meat counter now and ask for the meat.

My son is in Guatamala City for a couple years, every store along the street has an armed guard with a shotgun. He said he passes 20-30 armed guards standing outside small shops and stores walking around the block. Thats the way its been there for years now. It might get to that point here in the US if the food source really gets compromised.

-DallanC
 

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Discussion Starter · #108 · (Edited)
Unaffordable: People with little money will move to cheaper food sources. In the 1980's people used to joke about the elderly eating dog/cat food etc etc. IDK, people will find something to eat, but the shift will be to cheap simple food.
Top ramen and mac n cheese. Maybe some fried spam if it hasn't gone up too much. Frozen peas. Mainly top ramen, that stuff is cheap. Long shelf life too. Although, you'd have to be careful about brand. Some of it (cup o noodles i think) has a light layer of wax as a preservative. Eat enough of it over time, and you might have some GI issues.

If you mention "Rolling pennies for gas broke" to people nowadays, they probably wouldn't get it.
Unavailability: The big costal citys will melt down first, decent people who would never commit a crime will start doing what it takes to feed their children. Robbery, Crime will skyrocket. That will lead to an exodus to surrounding areas... ie: think Grapes of Wrath

In rural Utah, there's more food available. Lots of horse trading with farmers / ranchers.
Yeah pretty much, although i'd apply that to all big cities, not just coastal ones. Desperate people will do desperate things. I think how far things deteriorate depends on the severity of shortages and unavailability. Despite it being mainly a big city issue, it will effect everyone else in the surrounding areas none the less. In terms of resources and crime. People with mouths to feed and any means of travel aren't going to sit there and pick there nose. Either by leaving their home areas for other groccery store or markets at best or "Foraging" at worse, it's going to put a drain on suburban and rural resources.

There will be lots of poaching.
I've put a lot of thought into this one actually. There will definitely be an uptick in poaching on both public and private. How much, depends on how bad prices/availability becomes. If things get real bad, I think a lot of people will turn to poaching. Even people who ordinarily would not.

One scenario that has crossed my mind is.... how do i put this.... being robbed of a kill. Put it this way, lets say a fella who happens to hunt by themselves legally harvests a deer or elk. (There are a lot of guys who hunt solo, not just me). Then a group of armed dudes spot him, move up, and basically say, "Get away from my elk." Not much you can do except get yourself killed. It sounds apocalyptic and far fetched I know, but I can see that plausible under certain circumstances.

If major food shortages becomes a thing, I honestly don't think the deer and elk herds will survive more then 3 to 6 months if poaching ever goes "mainstream". (IE. "Everyone is doing it" )


I saw a few stores are now not putting steaks out on shelves, due to theft. You have to go to the meat counter now and ask for the meat.

My son is in Guatamala City for a couple years, every store along the street has an armed guard with a shotgun. He said he passes 20-30 armed guards standing outside small shops and stores walking around the block. Thats the way its been there for years now. It might get to that point here in the US if the food source really gets compromised.

-DallanC
Venezuala and Argentina might make great case studies. Seems like that's where we might be heading.

EDIT:
Since I'm writing a freaking book. (I type fast, ex IT cubicle dweller),
If I sound like i have little faith in humanity or human nature it's because I do. Some of what I've seen people will do while TDY in SouthCom (aka central / south america) as an Engineer:

  • Woman willing to ***** herself out for a pair of jungle boots? Check. (it wasn't me she propositioned, it was a buddy of mine)
  • Kids literally knocking other kids out for an MRE handout? Check. (medic had to patch a gash in a kids head)
  • Villagers rioting over scrap building materials for their huts and local forces discharging their weapons iinto the air on full auto to disperse them? Check.

Yeah, guess who had to burn all the scrap material at a result in order to keep the peace? Yours truly. I just loved the looks i was getting. Diesal sucks for this purpose btw. MoGas works much better, but amazingly, you don't see much of it outside of a mobile field kitchen.

Desperate people will do desperate things. I imagine afgan/ Iraq vets will have even better stories to tell.
 

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Starts at 12:36 Dismiss it, or pay attention, whatever. Don't care. I'm being nice by posting this.
I read a couple days ago meat is going bad sitting on ships waiting to be unloaded in Europe just going across the channel. They have been shipping non-frozen meat to get it to market for premium prices, now its a couple days late and the meat isnt as fresh. All because they cant unload the ships fast enough.

Also back to car dealers, VW just announced chip shortages lasting into 2024 now. I thought it was nuts when in 2021 they were saying it wouldn't normalize until 2023.

-DallanC
 

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Discussion Starter · #111 ·
I know I repeat myself, but if there's something you've been planning on getting, get it soon. I'm linking two videos, on the correct time stamp that is talking about the supply crunch that is coming. Like Ripley, you can believe it or not. Personally, given inflation, and the rosy overall picture, ... well whatever. You make your own decisions.

 

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Anyone here buy precious metals? I recommend getting some.

Also, get hard alcohol, even if you don’t drink, it has lots of uses and if **** hit the fan, you can use it to trade.
I picked up quite a bit of silver a few years ago when it was under $20 a oz but now it is over $20. If it comes back down I may get some more. I have both coins and bars and for what I bought it for I have a nice investment. I also have some foreign currency that is interesting to watch go up and down. Right now it is going up for some reason.

On alcohol, I dumped around a grand worth down the drain this last January. All of it had been given to me for work that I had done for others. It was funny that when I went to uncork some very good Wild Turkey Rye the cork broke off in the neck and I ended up pushing it down into the bottle to be able to dump it.
 

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If the past 3 years is any indication... primers & powder > precious metals for SHTF. I cant count the number of trades I've done using reloading components since before Covid hit. No-one has asked for silver. But if you want to go the silver route, get the old silver dimes. Small enough denomination to be useful for small deals. IDK if the average person can tell a 90% silver "rosie" from 40% on... or maybe even a clad one (lol)... but a merc dime... everyone recognizes those as silver. Problem with those now is even finding any for sale. They got really popular 2 years ago. Price jumped from $1200 per $100 face to near $2000 in less than a month. Those are almost $2200 now.

You should get at least one canadian maple leaf though, those are "4 9's" silver (9.999%). You can make colloidal silver solution with a couple 9 volt batteries (google how-to's). That is extremely useful for treating wound infections if you don't have access to antibiotics. Dont use us silver eagles for that... they aren't pure enough.

-DallanC
 

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Good on ya DallanC, I actually got a bunch of the .9999 stuff, simply because they can use it in electronics and such but now I’m going to have to Google the video you mentioned.

What made you dump all the booze?
 

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To this day, I carry a Morgan dollar, a Walking Liberty half, and a Standing Liberty quarter in my pocket. Its been a topic of conversation countless times among friends or at the office. Someone mentions "Silver" and I plop the dollar on the table. :)

-DallanC
 

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Speaking of Mercury Dimes, I used to frequent the old Westwoods Greyhound bus depot and cafe. You would be surprised at the number of silver coins that went through the cash register from passengers on the bus. They had to of emptied out their piggy banks for their trip to California. I was also going with a waitress that worked there and had her pull all the silver coins out for me to exchange. That was until the owner got wind of what I was doing and then that came to a halt.

I also have my dads 1878 Carson City silver dollar that he got from his grandmother. It has never seen a case but he carried it enough that you can see wear on it from being in his pocket. I also have a 1880 Carson City silver dollar that was my grandmothers. Those two will never leave my safe. But then there are the ones that I got from the tooth ferry, she left a silver dollar under my pillow when I lost a tooth.
 

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I always loved the CC dollars. They still have the original CC press and dies... there is a push among numismatics for the US Gov to issue a new 21st century CC Morgan coin, minted on the original equipment. I love the idea personally.

My grandfather gave me a Merc Dime way too many decades ago, he had a coin shop and gave it to me when I was young to "help pay for college". I really never thought about it until 3-4 years ago. I dug it out, knew it was something special so sent it in to get professional graded and slabbed. It came back as 1916D Mercury, XF. Thats the king of the merc dimes, the rare key date. Sadly it does have a healthy scratch in the neck that drops alot off the estimated value. But like your Dads coin, its special and nothing I'd ever consider parting with.

-DallanC
 

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Well, well, well, my how they turntables...turn. Seems like out of control food prices have everyone's attention now. Every other time I blink I hear people, news outlets, or whoever talking about the looming food shortage. It's not just "crazy preppers" talking about it either. It's normies. Pumpkin spice latte sipping basic bitches. Last year I had coworkers and in-laws acting like me, my wife and other like-minded coworkers were nut jobs for kicking the food storage into overdrive. I mean food has always been cheap and plentiful. Why would that ever change? 🙃
 
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