[PBH]

my prediction is that the legislature + special interest groups will pressure the DWR into something drastic. I'm not making any plans to hunt deer this fall.

 

[PBH]

You mean pressure the Wildlife Board?

I don't remember the shed hunting closure going through the WB.
That's kind of the scenario I'm thinking about. If over the next month, or two, we see drastic mortality on our deer herds, will people (in general) throw a big enough fit that an "emergency closure" on deer hunting is a result?

 

[PBH]

OK -- after much deliberation, I am going to go ahead and provide my prediction. This prediction will NOT be my pessimistic conspiracy theory prediction that the hunts will just get closed down. It will be a reasonable prediction. Here it goes.....

I think the DWR has learned some things from fisheries management, and has realized that they missed out on an opportunity to SAVE some of our deer population by allow MORE harvest by hunters. Look at fisheries like Minersville. What happens when we have poor water years? We know that large numbers of fish will die due to high temps, low water, stress, etc. So fisheries managers implement regulation changes to allow more harvest. They increase harvest in an effort to lower the population to a point that MORE fish will survive the extreme weather event than would have survived if they continued to protect the fish. Sure, it sounds backwards: harvest more to save more. But it works.

Consider what we've done in the past number of years with deer: with an extended drought and deer herds on decline, we've continued to limit tags in an effort to "save" deer, or ie: stockpile. Great idea, right? Wrong. We've "saved" all these deer only to have the Great Winter of 2023 hit. Reports and numbers are coming in left and right, specifically for Northern Utah (Idaho, Wyoming, etc.) with extremely high mortality rates on deer. This winter is killing them. And we've missed the boat in trying to save them by NOT handing out more deer tags in 2022, 2021, 2020. We should have done exactly what fisheries managers do when bad predictors show up, like extended droughts, and liberalize the limits encouraging MORE harvest in an effort to reduce mass die-offs. Provide opportunity for the reduced population to survive the extreme event. It works -- we've seen this work at Minersville numerous times. We should have done this with our deer herds, but we didn't. Our deer herds are dying from the effects of a bad winter -- and we should have allowed hunters to harvest some of those deer in the previous years leading to this!

So, the prediction on deer tag numbers from me is this:
A. The DWR will propose a SIGNIFICANT DECREASE in tags for northern Utah units.
B. The DWR will propose a SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in tags for southern Utah units.

The increase would include struggling units, like Boulder. Quit trying to stockpile the remaining deer only to have more of them die due to extreme weather. Harvest more in an effort to help more survive the winter.

That's what I think.

 

[PBH]

I agree, for general units. On LE units, I doubt they will follow the same idea.

I think the Henries and Pauns are just as vulnerable to mass die-off from harsh weather events as any unit in northern Utah -- so, why attempt to stockpile (ie: protect) animals only to have them die due to those harsh weather events? increase tag allocation even for LE units. That's my prediction.

 

[PBH]

Because they are having a hard enough time producing bucks worth the 28 year wait for the tag as it is. If you kill more every year, it gets even harder.

so you're saying that we should reduce tags and stockpile those deer? heck, why not just close the unit to hunting for 3 years?

(FWIW, neither of those options above will fix the problem)

It's just my prediction. I think they'll propose to increase across the board for units in southern Utah.

 

[PBH]

If only the DWR could back up the hatchery truck into a depopulated and newly filled/rejuvenated Henries or Pauns and have 170 bucks after 2 years, like what we see with Minersville rainbows.

This is exactly correct -- unlike with fish, we can't simply stock more deer from hatcheries. but, I think the concept is still legit. Had we increased tags in northern Utah in 2022 (2021, 2020) and reduced the size of the herds in those units, would our mortality rate today, and in the coming months, be at 70%? Or would it be lower? Also, you have to consider that the deer today are dying - regardless of what we did yesterday. So, why not allow hunters to harvest those deer anyway?

I know. I'm crazy. But we can't keep trying to save deer only to have them die anyway. Let's harvest them.