[middlefork]

FWIW last year the WB did not change permit numbers for general deer from those recommended. The only ones I see are for LE Elk on a couple of units.

Can they do it? Sure.

 

[KineKilla]

I can't imagine anyone's pants are big enough to fit the cajones that would take. Not to mention most of these folks get degrees in wildlife management and pursue the careers they do out of passion for their field. I don't think that often includes a passion for eliminating hunts with such ease. I don't know Director Shirley but I'm guessing the recent decision wasn't made lightly nor would something as profound as closing the deer hunt in Utah.

If he does I hope he has a home on an island somewhere way off the grid

Where is all this optimism coming from!? Madness I say. Madness!

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[colorcountrygunner]

I just read that the wildlife board will approve final permit numbers on May 4th. Numbers will be available on utah hunt planner.

 

[BigT]

Wasn't the idea behind moving the application period back to later this month / thru much of April so that we would know what permits were available? I guess we will know the recommended numbers, but only if unchanged by the board.

 

[Vanilla]

The plan all along was only to give people the recommended numbers, not the final numbers, before applying. It's a step in the right direction but still not great, IMO.

But, that was what they advertised all along with this, that you'd simply know the proposed numbers during the application period.

 

[RandomElk16]

F&G monitoring of mule deer fawn and elk calf survival through February is tracking lower than in recent years | Idaho Fish and Game

idfg.idaho.gov

"In Unit 69 near Idaho Falls, 43% mule deer fawns have died. And in Unit 76 along the Wyoming border, 67% of fawns did not survive the region’s severe winter."


Depends on the area. The toughest month for winterkill is usually April. Also have read that they are seeing lots of gelled marrow in the dead - a sign of severe malnutrition and likely occurring in those that have not yet died.

 

[BigT]

Great info Random Elk... Thanks!

 

[Lone_Hunter]

One more point, for next years draw.

 

[ridgetop]

I'm guessing we could could see around a 20 percent cut from last year on many units.

 

[KineKilla]

Weren't we supposed to know permit numbers before the draw this year?

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[Critter]

You'll see the proposed permit numbers but not the actual numbers before the draw.

 

[Bux n Dux]

Weren't we supposed to know permit numbers before the draw this year?

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With the round of RACs starting the first week in April, I bet you see the permit numbers in their meeting materials by the end of next week.

 

[PBH]

OK -- after much deliberation, I am going to go ahead and provide my prediction. This prediction will NOT be my pessimistic conspiracy theory prediction that the hunts will just get closed down. It will be a reasonable prediction. Here it goes.....

I think the DWR has learned some things from fisheries management, and has realized that they missed out on an opportunity to SAVE some of our deer population by allow MORE harvest by hunters. Look at fisheries like Minersville. What happens when we have poor water years? We know that large numbers of fish will die due to high temps, low water, stress, etc. So fisheries managers implement regulation changes to allow more harvest. They increase harvest in an effort to lower the population to a point that MORE fish will survive the extreme weather event than would have survived if they continued to protect the fish. Sure, it sounds backwards: harvest more to save more. But it works.

Consider what we've done in the past number of years with deer: with an extended drought and deer herds on decline, we've continued to limit tags in an effort to "save" deer, or ie: stockpile. Great idea, right? Wrong. We've "saved" all these deer only to have the Great Winter of 2023 hit. Reports and numbers are coming in left and right, specifically for Northern Utah (Idaho, Wyoming, etc.) with extremely high mortality rates on deer. This winter is killing them. And we've missed the boat in trying to save them by NOT handing out more deer tags in 2022, 2021, 2020. We should have done exactly what fisheries managers do when bad predictors show up, like extended droughts, and liberalize the limits encouraging MORE harvest in an effort to reduce mass die-offs. Provide opportunity for the reduced population to survive the extreme event. It works -- we've seen this work at Minersville numerous times. We should have done this with our deer herds, but we didn't. Our deer herds are dying from the effects of a bad winter -- and we should have allowed hunters to harvest some of those deer in the previous years leading to this!

So, the prediction on deer tag numbers from me is this:
A. The DWR will propose a SIGNIFICANT DECREASE in tags for northern Utah units.
B. The DWR will propose a SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in tags for southern Utah units.

The increase would include struggling units, like Boulder. Quit trying to stockpile the remaining deer only to have more of them die due to extreme weather. Harvest more in an effort to help more survive the winter.

That's what I think.

 

[Bux n Dux]

OK -- after much deliberation, I am going to go ahead and provide my prediction. This prediction will NOT be my pessimistic conspiracy theory prediction that the hunts will just get closed down. It will be a reasonable prediction. Here it goes.....

I think the DWR has learned some things from fisheries management, and has realized that they missed out on an opportunity to SAVE some of our deer population by allow MORE harvest by hunters. Look at fisheries like Minersville. What happens when we have poor water years? We know that large numbers of fish will die due to high temps, low water, stress, etc. So fisheries managers implement regulation changes to allow more harvest. They increase harvest in an effort to lower the population to a point that MORE fish will survive the extreme weather event than would have survived if they continued to protect the fish. Sure, it sounds backwards: harvest more to save more. But it works.

Consider what we've done in the past number of years with deer: with an extended drought and deer herds on decline, we've continued to limit tags in an effort to "save" deer, or ie: stockpile. Great idea, right? Wrong. We've "saved" all these deer only to have the Great Winter of 2023 hit. Reports and numbers are coming in left and right, specifically for Northern Utah (Idaho, Wyoming, etc.) with extremely high mortality rates on deer. This winter is killing them. And we've missed the boat in trying to save them by NOT handing out more deer tags in 2022, 2021, 2020. We should have done exactly what fisheries managers do when bad predictors show up, like extended droughts, and liberalize the limits encouraging MORE harvest in an effort to reduce mass die-offs. Provide opportunity for the reduced population to survive the extreme event. It works -- we've seen this work at Minersville numerous times. We should have done this with our deer herds, but we didn't. Our deer herds are dying from the effects of a bad winter -- and we should have allowed hunters to harvest some of those deer in the previous years leading to this!

So, the prediction on deer tag numbers from me is this:
A. The DWR will propose a SIGNIFICANT DECREASE in tags for northern Utah units.
B. The DWR will propose a SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in tags for southern Utah units.

The increase would include struggling units, like Boulder. Quit trying to stockpile the remaining deer only to have more of them die due to extreme weather. Harvest more in an effort to help more survive the winter.

That's what I think.

I agree, for general units. On LE units, I doubt they will follow the same idea.

 

[PBH]

I agree, for general units. On LE units, I doubt they will follow the same idea.

I think the Henries and Pauns are just as vulnerable to mass die-off from harsh weather events as any unit in northern Utah -- so, why attempt to stockpile (ie: protect) animals only to have them die due to those harsh weather events? increase tag allocation even for LE units. That's my prediction.

 

[Brookie]

Fish management is not the same a big game management, I don't think the biologist are trying to stock pile the deer. Maybe special interest groups are. We have just gone through 2 to 3 years of extreme weather event (drought) and then this winter. I think they will give numbers based on carry capacity of the given habitat with the knowledge that we have. And yes northern units less tags southern more tags

 

[Bux n Dux]

I think the Henries and Pauns are just as vulnerable to mass die-off from harsh weather events as any unit in northern Utah -- so, why attempt to stockpile (ie: protect) animals only to have them die due to those harsh weather events? increase tag allocation even for LE units. That's my prediction.

Because they are having a hard enough time producing bucks worth the 28 year wait for the tag as it is. If you kill more every year, it gets even harder.

 

[PBH]

Because they are having a hard enough time producing bucks worth the 28 year wait for the tag as it is. If you kill more every year, it gets even harder.

so you're saying that we should reduce tags and stockpile those deer? heck, why not just close the unit to hunting for 3 years?

(FWIW, neither of those options above will fix the problem)

It's just my prediction. I think they'll propose to increase across the board for units in southern Utah.

 

[Catherder]

I think the DWR has learned some things from fisheries management, and has realized that they missed out on an opportunity to SAVE some of our deer population by allow MORE harvest by hunters. Look at fisheries like Minersville. What happens when we have poor water years? We know that large numbers of fish will die due to high temps, low water, stress, etc. So fisheries managers implement regulation changes to allow more harvest. They increase harvest in an effort to lower the population to a point that MORE fish will survive the extreme weather event than would have survived if they continued to protect the fish. Sure, it sounds backwards: harvest more to save more. But it works.

If only the DWR could back up the hatchery truck into a depopulated and newly filled/rejuvenated Henries or Pauns and have 170 bucks after 2 years, like what we see with Minersville rainbows.

Couple other quick thoughts.

1. They actually did this with Henries Bison a couple years ago when the Wayne county ranchers were freaking out about how bad the range conditions were.

2. SFW and their minions on the WB would absolutely lose their minds with such an approach. While it may be entertaining to watch, it is pretty unlikely to happen with the kings deer.

 

[PBH]

If only the DWR could back up the hatchery truck into a depopulated and newly filled/rejuvenated Henries or Pauns and have 170 bucks after 2 years, like what we see with Minersville rainbows.

This is exactly correct -- unlike with fish, we can't simply stock more deer from hatcheries. but, I think the concept is still legit. Had we increased tags in northern Utah in 2022 (2021, 2020) and reduced the size of the herds in those units, would our mortality rate today, and in the coming months, be at 70%? Or would it be lower? Also, you have to consider that the deer today are dying - regardless of what we did yesterday. So, why not allow hunters to harvest those deer anyway?

I know. I'm crazy. But we can't keep trying to save deer only to have them die anyway. Let's harvest them.