Utah Wildlife Forum banner

1 - 12 of 12 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,674 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
In a draw where only one tag is available like Antelope Island, do bonus points have any effect or is it a truly random draw where all applicants have an equal chance regardless of points?

I took a cursory glance at the rules and couldn't find the answer quickly so I'm deferring to my internet genius buddies. -----SS
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,640 Posts
I'm pretty sure that you get your name in the hat once for each point you have, plus once for applying. So someone with 0 points would get one chance out of say 10000 (no idea how many chances there actually would be) while someone with 20 points would get 21 chances out of those 10000. So in that case, your odds are either bad, or really bad. Points help, but it comes down to luck any way you slice it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,640 Posts
Update: Just ran through it on a spreadsheet. Unless my methods are totally off base, an applicant with 0 points last year had roughly a 1:8100 chance of drawing the Antelope Island deer tag, while the max point holders with 19 points had roughly a 1:400 chance to draw it. The lucky winner beat odds of about 1:625.

Like I said, your odds are either bad or really bad. This is why some states take the value of your bonus points, square them, and then add one to give you your number of chances (AKA 20 points would give you 20^2 + 1 = 401 chances in the draw).

If Utah did this with the Antelope Island tag, a person with zero points would have roughly a 1:58000 chance of a draw, while max point holders would have about a 1:160 chance of a draw. In that case, your odds are either bad or catastrophically bad. :mrgreen: But higher point holders do benefit much more.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,640 Posts
LOL......youre an overachiever Carq! I appreciate it.--------SS
Haha no problem. This stuff has been on my mind a lot... I've been trying to figure out how all these point systems work. I figure it will help me decide how to best use my limited resources to apply for some out-of-state hunts.

(Still trying to figure out if I can possibly justify applying in Nevada - they do the whole bonus points squared thing, so an early start seems especially important.)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,884 Posts
I figured out my "true odds" on my Stansbury bighorn sheep tag. When it was the one and only tag available.
I came up with 1:144 odds and that was with only 4 points. Not as bad as one would think but still a very long shot.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,326 Posts
Assuming some of the 9,104 out-of-State people that bought points last year don't apply for the tag, my odds of drawing an out-of-state Henry Mountains tag are 1:5522. I've seen people beat worse odds than that, so I'm already planning my trip out. It's going to be epic!8)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,640 Posts
Assuming some of the 9,104 out-of-State people that bought points last year don't apply for the tag, my odds of drawing an out-of-state Henry Mountains tag are 1:5522. I've seen people beat worse odds than that, so I'm already planning my trip out. It's going to be epic!8)
Best wishes. Personally, the more I study all of these out-of-state draw odds, the more I feel like I'm chasing a fool's hope on some of my tags (sheep especially).

But, since the odds of me making enough $$$ to buy some of these tags at auction is FAR worse than any of the draw odds I've encountered...in I go.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,039 Posts
I figured out my "true odds" on my Stansbury bighorn sheep tag. When it was the one and only tag available.
I came up with 1:144 odds and that was with only 4 points. Not as bad as one would think but still a very long shot.
Wow Ridge. 4 points for a sheep tag? I think there are alot of jealous folks out there. If they saw that ram on your wall, they would be doubly so! :)

Your odds were still better than a Henries deer tag though...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,640 Posts
I figured out my "true odds" on my Stansbury bighorn sheep tag. When it was the one and only tag available.
I came up with 1:144 odds and that was with only 4 points. Not as bad as one would think but still a very long shot.
One of the things that I enjoyed the most about your story was the fact that you drew in the first place. Luck, fate, or whatever it was really seemed to work out for you, and that was cool.

My odds of drawing a sheep tag this year are about 1:700. Not good, but a little better than the powerball, anyway.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,188 Posts
I'm good with math and statistics but not good at "giving a D*$#" what the odds are. Enter to play and play to win!

I'm also not one of the people using the loophole to hunt GS Deer every year. I put in for the areas I want to hunt in the order I want to hunt them and that's it.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,315 Posts
I'm good with math and statistics but not good at "giving a D*$#" what the odds are. Enter to play and play to win!

I'm also not one of the people using the loophole to hunt GS Deer every year. I put in for the areas I want to hunt in the order I want to hunt them and that's it.
Then you arent playing to win!!
 
1 - 12 of 12 Posts
Top