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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
https://wildlife.utah.gov/hunting/biggame/pdf/2013/13_elk.pdf

Ok, so if you look at Hunt # 3037 (Central/Manti early I assume), why is it that with 0 points you have a 1 in 483 chance of drawing, then with 1 point your odds increase substantially to 1 in 60, but again with 2 points they plummet back to the 1 in 305 range?

Even weirder to me is the # 3038 Hunt. You had a 1 in 13.7 chance with 0 points, but there is an N/A in the 1 point section then 1 in 16.8 with 2 points.

Why is it your chances of drawing a tag are actually better with 0 points than with 2 or 3, and why are your chances almost non-existent with 1 point in some cases? Why even bother putting out draw odds?

...Forgive my ignorance, for I know not what I ask...
 

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I think you should look at this report as past draw RESULTS instead of future draw ODDS. Randomly, 1 out the 483 applicants with 0 points drew the early rifle tag, but that doesn't mean they give out 1 tag per 483 0-point applicants. It just means that that lucky person was randomly assigned a low enough number to draw a tag. Half the tags (69, this case) go to those with the most points. The other half goes to the lowest randomly assigned numbers. Each point gets you a number.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
That sounds like a fairly good explanation.

So, each point is just like having 1 additional lottery ticket in your pocket? That's good news for most but my luck sucks so even with a pocketful of tickets I'm likely to be waiting a VERY long time...;-)
 

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That is not correct. Each point does not get you another "entry" into the draw. Half the tags on any unit go to the highest point applicants, whatever that is. The other half of the tags go randomly to everyone else that applies. Points only mean something to those with the highest point total in any given pool. Otherwise, they are meaningless.

For example, I have 10 bull elk points. The unit I applied for has 10 tags. Last year, half the tags went to guys with 15 or more points. Once those five tags were gone, my 10 points meant the exact same thing as guys with 0 points, guys with 12 points, and guys with 5 points, and everything else. I still get only one entry in the drawing, even if I have 10 points.
 

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What you're looking at when you look at this report is the DWRs interpretation of what actually happened in the drawing for 2013... it is not a prediction of chances of drawing.

Ok, so if you look at Hunt # 3037 (Central/Manti early I assume), why is it that with 0 points you have a 1 in 483 chance of drawing, then with 1 point your odds increase substantially to 1 in 60, but again with 2 points they plummet back to the 1 in 305 range?
What ended up happening was 5 lucky guys with one point actually drew tags. So 5 of the 300 appplicants (or 1 in 60) with one point drew a tag. Only 1 applicant with 2 points drew. But remember, it's not a prediciton of drawing probablility.

Even weirder to me is the # 3038 Hunt. You had a 1 in 13.7 chance with 0 points, but there is an N/A in the 1 point section then 1 in 16.8 with 2 points.
The report says NA simply because nobody with 1 point was lucky enough to draw that tag... it's not that their odds are worse than those with 0 points... just that none of them had their number drawn to win the tag.

Why is it your chances of drawing a tag are actually better with 0 points than with 2 or 3, and why are your chances almost non-existent with 1 point in some cases? Why even bother putting out draw odds?
They aren't, a guy with 1 point has twice the chance to have his number drawn and win the tag compared to a guy with zero points... it just happens that guys with zero points were luckier last year (at least for the late Manti tag).

So, each point is just like having 1 additional lottery ticket in your pocket? That's good news for most but my luck sucks so even with a pocketful of tickets I'm likely to be waiting a VERY long time...;-)
Good way to look at it with the lottery ticket comparison. The trick to "winning the lotttery" with low points is to go for units that have larger numbers of tags. As GaryFish describes, half the tags are reserved for the guys with the most points & the other half are drawn lottery style. More tags available in the lottery means more of a chance to have tags available when your number is pulled.

If you have 10pts they draw 10 "numbers" for you and then take the lowest.
You actually get 11 numbers... one for each point you have plus one more for the application itself.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 · (Edited)
When everyone says they draw "numbers" for applicants, do you mean that on a unit that has say 70 tags all the numbers are between 1-70 (edit: obviously this can't be the case because there are way more than 70 applicants), or if there were a total of say 300 applicants, are the numbers all between 1-300?

Not sure what the numbers are for, and why the lowest numbers are better to have. Most games I play (except golf I suppose) the higher the number the better.
 

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That is not correct. Each point does not get you another "entry" into the draw. Half the tags on any unit go to the highest point applicants, whatever that is. The other half of the tags go randomly to everyone else that applies. Points only mean something to those with the highest point total in any given pool. Otherwise, they are meaningless.

For example, I have 10 bull elk points. The unit I applied for has 10 tags. Last year, half the tags went to guys with 15 or more points. Once those five tags were gone, my 10 points meant the exact same thing as guys with 0 points, guys with 12 points, and guys with 5 points, and everything else. I still get only one entry in the drawing, even if I have 10 points.
http://wildlife.utah.gov/rules-regulations/988-r657-62--drawing-application-procedures.html

From heading 8:
(5)(a) Each applicant receives a random drawing number for:
(i) each species applied for; and
(ii) each bonus point for that species.
 

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I have found that it is best not to even try to figure out Utah's draw system. All it will do is get you flustered.

Just live with it and don't worry about it since you can't change it
 

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I'm going to burst some bubbles here. My dad has worked as a volunteer at the fish and game for going on 4 years weekly. In that time he became privy to some dis concerning info from DWR guys to remain unmentioned. If you look in the Big Game field guide you'll find it does not give any info outside max point holders for each unit. And if you pull up the big book of draw results you'll find outside max point holders, no consistency with people drawing tags based on the more points they have. I mean it's across the board. Why, because unless you have max points that are say 18 for the unit you are applying for, and you have 16, the guy that had zero had just as good as chance as you at drawing. There is no name in the bucket for as many times as points, that's what they want you to believe. Think about it if it worked that way there should be some consistency with higher point holders drawing tags. But the DWR has it figured out, you'll keep dumping your money in, like I do to reach max. You have to or missing years could cost your points last time I checked. If no lower or zero point holders drew out, the DWR realizes that could hurt people putting in, in the first place, so they give everyone save max point holders the same shot. This way they make sure they get their money. The best way to increase your odds is a to put in as a group, unless your max than go it alone, or draw an expo tag like I did this year. I put my time in since my late teens on Boulder Elk, in 2012 I finally reached max, and it's the trophy of a lifetime. Unfortunately my dad won't likely live long enough for me to see him draw the bull tag of his dreams. I welcome anyone to research this, I have.
 

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No need to do the PM, I'll tell you right now, last year he brought this huge book home that have specific info on draw results for every area and tag and how many of each point criteria drew, I then simply logged the totals across the board for 50 random areas and tags for the last 3 years. Other than max point holders, there was no consistency at all with higher point holders, infact in many circumstances the bottom half prevailed over the top. If that isn't research than tell me what is. Anyone can go to their local DWR office and check out this specific draw info book. I am thinking of doing an even more in depth study and putting something together like a spreadsheet for a rack meeting.
 

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Chew on this for a minute 5pointbull

SAN JUAN ARCHERY DEER
Points---Applicants--Bonus-----Random-----------Total points------------Chance someone will----------Random Permit drawn
-----------------------Permit----- Permit------------In Group---------------Draw This group---------------

13 ------------2----------2----------0
12 ------------9----------2----------0 ----------------- 91 ----------------------------- 6%
11 -----------14----------0----------0 ---------------- 168 ---------------------------- 11%
10 ------------6----------0----------0 ------------------66 ------------------------------ 4%
9 ------------11----------0----------0 ------------------110 ---------------------------- 7%
8 ------------11----------0----------0 ------------------99 ----------------------------- 6%
7 ------------20----------0----------2 -----------------160 -----------------------------10% -------------------------------2
6 ------------27----------0----------0 ----------------- 189 -----------------------------12%
5 ------------33----------0----------1 ------------------ 198 ---------------------------12% -------------------------------1
4 ------------25----------0----------1 ------------------ 125 --------------------------- 8% --------------------------------1
3 ------------45----------0----------1 ------------------- 180 --------------------------11% --------------------------------1
2 ------------35----------0----------0 --- ----------------105 ----------------------------7%
1 ------------35----------0----------0 -------------------- 70 -----------------------------4%
0 ------------29----------0----------0 --- -----------------29 ----------------------------2%
Total--------302------------------------------------------ 1590---------------------------- 100%
Total Applicants Total Points all Groups

San Juan Archery Deer.
If you look at the people that drew in the random Permits 2 had 7 points, 1 had 5 points, one had 4 points, and one had 3 points. All with 13 points drew and 2 with 12 drew bonus tags. that leaves 7 with 12 point in random. So (12+1)* 7 = 91 the rest of the groups are total applicants * points +1. I will do another unit with more tags. These number tell me they do use points on the random draw. The blue groups drew the red didn't.
 

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Chew on this for a minute 5pointbull

SAN JUAN ARCHERY DEER
Points Applicants Bonus Random
13 2 2 0
12 9 2 0 91 6%
11 14 0 0 168 11%
10 6 0 0 66 4%
9 11 0 0 110 7%
8 11 0 0 99 6%
7 20 0 2 160 10% 2
6 27 0 0 189 12%
5 33 0 1 198 12% 1
4 25 0 1 125 8% 1
3 45 0 1 180 11% 1
2 35 0 0 105 7%
1 35 0 0 70 4%
0 29 0 0 29 2%
TOTALS 302 1590 100%
Total Applicants Total Points all Groups

Excel comes in a little weird But this is San Juan Archery Deer.
If you look at the people that drew in the random the % lines up with them using bonus points. the percent Colum show the chance that someone in each group will draw notice the higher percent groups get most the tags. All with 13 points drew and 2 with 12. that leaves 7 with 12 point in random. So (12+1)* 7 = 91 the rest of the groups are total applicants * points +1. I will do another unit with more tags. These number tell me they do use points on the random draw.
Could you put that in a Google Doc so we can see what you're seeing?
 
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