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What you're looking at when you look at this report is the DWRs interpretation of what actually happened in the drawing for 2013... it is not a prediction of chances of drawing.

Ok, so if you look at Hunt # 3037 (Central/Manti early I assume), why is it that with 0 points you have a 1 in 483 chance of drawing, then with 1 point your odds increase substantially to 1 in 60, but again with 2 points they plummet back to the 1 in 305 range?
What ended up happening was 5 lucky guys with one point actually drew tags. So 5 of the 300 appplicants (or 1 in 60) with one point drew a tag. Only 1 applicant with 2 points drew. But remember, it's not a prediciton of drawing probablility.

Even weirder to me is the # 3038 Hunt. You had a 1 in 13.7 chance with 0 points, but there is an N/A in the 1 point section then 1 in 16.8 with 2 points.
The report says NA simply because nobody with 1 point was lucky enough to draw that tag... it's not that their odds are worse than those with 0 points... just that none of them had their number drawn to win the tag.

Why is it your chances of drawing a tag are actually better with 0 points than with 2 or 3, and why are your chances almost non-existent with 1 point in some cases? Why even bother putting out draw odds?
They aren't, a guy with 1 point has twice the chance to have his number drawn and win the tag compared to a guy with zero points... it just happens that guys with zero points were luckier last year (at least for the late Manti tag).

So, each point is just like having 1 additional lottery ticket in your pocket? That's good news for most but my luck sucks so even with a pocketful of tickets I'm likely to be waiting a VERY long time...;-)
Good way to look at it with the lottery ticket comparison. The trick to "winning the lotttery" with low points is to go for units that have larger numbers of tags. As GaryFish describes, half the tags are reserved for the guys with the most points & the other half are drawn lottery style. More tags available in the lottery means more of a chance to have tags available when your number is pulled.

If you have 10pts they draw 10 "numbers" for you and then take the lowest.
You actually get 11 numbers... one for each point you have plus one more for the application itself.
 

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Yes, but it shows a percentage, i think people should see a percentage, and specific #s if 10 people drew a tag with 4 points and zero drew a tag with 5. Than in reality for that specific year you had a better percentage, the percentage for the given year should reflect that #. Just saying.
I don't think that ten guys with 4 points and no guys with five points drawing a tag is a result of the 4 point guys having a better percent chance drawing. That just happens to be the way the lottery worked out in that particular year.
If I had four points and was in the same point group as the ten that drew tags was my percent chance of drawing increased simply by being in the same point pool as them... I would say no.
 

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Here's a couple of charts relating only to the limited entry elk drawing:

The first is the total number of applicants compared to the total number of "random numbers" (RNs) generated for all applicants within that point group. What do we learn/notice... based simply off the quantity of RNs generated per each group the lion share of regular tags would go to pont groups 6 thru 12 (I arbitratily selected those because they had a total number of RNs greater than 20k). Point groups 1 & 16 are roughly equivalent. As are 2 & 15, 3 & 14... match them up just like you would your March Madness bracket! Basically, a guy (any guy) in the 1 point pool has the same chance at receiving a low RN as a guy (any guy) in the 16 point pool.

The second chart is the number of bonus tags drawn compared to the number of regular tags (or lottery tags) drawn. This one is interesting to me. It does show that comparatively speaking a larger number of regular tags are won by guys in the point groups 2 thru 5 (again arbitrairly selected those groups as the number of tags won was greater than 100). This could largely be simply due to the volume of applicants within those point groups. But you can clearly see the pendulum swing as the number of bonus tags awarded increases towards the higher point groups, with 14 points far and away resulting in the highest number of bonus tags being awarded. An interesting additional look would be to see what similar charts like this would look like for each weapon type instead of viewing the entire species as a whole, but I think you can see a couple spikes in the bonus tag allocations that directly equate to the weapon choice. Notice the spike in bonus tags at 6... direct correlation to archery, spike at 11 perhaps a direct correlation to muzzlelaoder, and spike at 14 perhaps correlating to rifle hunts??? Who knows... I'm purely speculating here.

The third chart is the total number of applicants compared to the total number of tags drawn. Notice the scale, I changed it to logarithmic scale, which changes the y-axis to each reference line being a factor of 10 instead of a set equal interval. You'll notice that as the number of applicants per point pool steadily declines the number of tags won within that pool remains visually equal, in my mind proving the randomness of the drawing
 

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Can you explain this thought in more detail?

I see that the 1 and 16 point pools generate roughly the same number of RNs, but the 16 point pool guys have 16 more numbers than the 1 point guys right? Isn't that 78/646 = 12% for 16 pointers, versus 102/5405 = 1.9% for the 1 pointers?

I know you've got a point in there, I'm just having trouble grasping it right now.
The thinking is a bit convoluted, but here it goes...
The one point pool contains 5,405 applicants (I should put a disclaimer there that this number also includes those who applied only for the bonus point). For those 5405 applicatns 10,810 random numbers are issued.
The 16 point pool contains 524 applicants who were issued 10,982 random numbers.
You are correct in your rationale that the guy with 16 points has an increased chance... but his increased chance is at recieving a lower number, not a tag... at least not yet.
Once random numbers are drawn, the lowest random number for each applicant is retained and that is the number that determines drawing order.
So now who has the advantage??? The 524 16 point guys entering the drawing with their lowest 524 random numbers, or the 5405 1 point guys with their lowest 5405 random numbers???
Although the 16 point guys do have the advantage in terms of the number of randowm numbers each applicant is issued, once all numbers are thrown out other than the lowest, the sheer number of applicants in the lower point pools sways the odds back.
This logic applies only to a point group as a whole & not to an individual within the point group. An individual with 16 points has the advantage over the individual with 1 point.
 

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What does the last graph look like when you show only regular tags?
Here's for both regular tags and bonus tags only compared to the total number of applicants.
 

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Here's for both regular tags and bonus tags only compared to the total number of applicants.
There was a typo on the Bonus Tags chart... I had 11 tags for the 13 point group & it should be 111. Here's the corrected.
 

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Just for kicks and giggles... here's the same series of charts for limited entry deer.
 

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I do not understand why people that did not put in for the hunt and instead just bought a bonus point are factored in to the calculation under the 0 point group though.

I also do not fully understand the difference between Bonus Tags and Regular Tags...I mean, aren't all of the tags for a specific hunt factored in to the drawing? Why do we call them Bonus? A tag is a tag...
That's just how I punched it in to Excel... I included the folks that just bought a bonus point in all the point groups (not just the 0 point group) as a more complete picture of the total point group size. It still does not include all those with points but did not apply this year, so I acknowkedge that it is both incomplete and flawed in that regard. There's a separate report out that details it... I just didn't download it.

The difference between regular and bonus tags is this... if a unit offers 70 total tags for a hunt then 50% of them are reserved for those with the highest number of points, so 35 tags would be awarded to those with the most points of the applicants for that particular unit. The remaining 50%, or 35 tags, are then be awarded through the random number drawing/lottery system where all remaining applicants get their shot at winning a tag.

My apologies for the hijack, KineKilla.
 

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Yes, the bonus tags are those reserved for those with the highest points. The regular tags are those that are obtained by those with lower points through the lottery.
Going back to your original post regarding the early Manti, attached is the drawing report from 2013. This is exactly what the DWR calls them... bonus and regular tags & there is a separate column for each outlining how each tag was awarded. Other people, including myself, may call the bonus tags "guaranteed tags" or something similar and may call the regular tags "lottery tags" or something similar.

Also be careful with the phrase "max points pool." Some may use the term referring to the system as a whole, which would mean the absolute max number of points one could have... which at this point in time is 21 points. Others may use the term referring to the number of points that would result in a bonus tag for a specific unit. For example, the Manti that is attached, a guy may say that with points greater than, say 14, he would expect to be in the "max point pool" for that unit.
 

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The relevant question -- maybe -- is by how much your odds increase per point increase across different units.
Overall, from 2013's drawing results there were 40,424 applicants for 2,552 total tags (1,225 were allocated as bonus tags & 1327 were allocated as regular tags). From the total sum of random numbers issued compared to the number of tags, each point could be said to be worth an increase of ~0.995%.
If you consider a specific unit... say the Central Mountains, Manti unit from the OP... your points have different values based upon the weapon selection:
for an archery tag every point you have is worth ~3.78%
early rifle ~0.43%
late rifle ~1.74%
muzzleloader ~1.21%
In the attached picture you can see how those percentages and how your chances increase as your points increase. Your chances increase at a much faster rate for the archery hunt compared to the early rifle... but your chances do improve with each point you have.

Lesser, more undesireable units have a very high "point value," for example the Cache, North archery unit each point is worth ~21.62%. The top tier units have a very low "point value," like the early rifle Monroe unit at ~0.04% per point.
 

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The youth don't get LE tags easier than anyone else. What you heard is incorrect.

Youth only get tags in the general deer drawing.
I've heard youth also get some antlerless tag allocations.
I haven't heard anything or seen any numbers that would lead me to believe they get any preference for the LE tags & they are further "punished" by not being able to apply for LE/OIAL until 14 years old anyway.
 

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[emphasis added] Pardon my ignorance if already posted, but what is the threshold value for "those with the highest point?" Meaning, for any given unit, at what level within the point hierarchy would my application be pooled for the 50% reserved for bonus tags? From random inspection it seems like the top 3 to 5 highest bonus point categories are designated for bonus tags. Is there a defined standard in the policy?
+1, Dahlmer

There is no set bonus point number, it depends entirely on the rest of the applicants for that particular unit. It changes year to year based upon the applicant pool. For some units the bonus tags are allocated across the top several bonus point pools, but in other units there are not enough tags to satisfy those in just the top group.
This is where the DWR reports are valuable, you can research which bonus point groups got bonus tags last year (and previous years) and can attempt to predict where the bonus tags will be taken this year.

Quick, generic example to demonstrate the fluidity of the system:

Unit A drew bonus tags in 2012 at 14 points... but there were some monster creatures that were taken off that unit. More guys with a high number of points decide to put in for this unit in 2013 and it shifted the "bonus pool" up to 17 points.

On the other hand, Unit B drew bonus tags in 2012 at 11 points but post season reports hinted that quality has really headed for the toilet. So high point guys decided to switch units looking for higher quality animals. The exodus of high point applicants results in bonus tags being allocated to guys with 7 points.
It's an absolutely fluid system that depends on how each individual applies and it changes every year. We sit here and plug numbers into spreadsheets trying to find any trend that we think will help us... but we don't know anything until the results are posted.
 

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I got looking into the "value of a point" a little bit more... I guess you could say that curiosity is getting the best of me so I went back several years to see just how the value of a point has diminished as one would assume it would with the point creep being an ever present evil nowadays. I have DWR reports dating back to 2007 excluding 2010 & 2011 (not sure where they ran off to... maybe they're off shed hunting together). By "value of a point" I mean by how much it increases your chances by providing an additional random number in the drawing. There's no fancy statistics here, I just summed the the total number of random numbers issued to all applicants, did 1/total random numbers, and multiplied that by the number of regular tags available each year.

For limited entry elk the value of a bonus point overall was/is:
2007... 0.89%
2008... 0.99%
2009... 1.05%
2012... 1.05%
2013... 0.99%
Surprising to me that over the course of the last several years the value of an elk point has remained relatively stable... pretty good investment in today's economy!

For limited entry deer the value of a bonus point overall was/is:
2007... 1.24%
2008... 1.18%
2009... 1.19%
2012... 0.87%
2013... 0.71%
Pretty steep decline in value (43%) since 2007... much like my 401(k).

And since I'm in the moose pool, the value of a moose bonus point was/is:
2007... 0.211%
2008... 0.226%
2009... 0.188%
2012... 0.090%
2013... 0.071%
WOW!!! A 73% decline for each moose point over this time period! If this were an actual investmentl... get out as fast you can!
 
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