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Put a random excel sheet together of 50 hunts and I'll buy into your thing, Raptorman that only shows Max Points to draw unless I missed something, the same with Hunterstrailhead.com, you can as far as I know get specific results from the big book.
 

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I don't know why everyone's so pissed at me, I do a little science project 3 years ago and people want to treat my like Isaac Newton and throw me in prison and throw away the key;-)
 

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I don't know why everyone's so pissed at me, I do a little science project 3 years ago and people want to treat my like Isaac Newton and throw me in prison and throw away the key;-)
Not sure who you're referring too, but I'm not pissed. Just curious/interested/intrigued.
 

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I am not mad, I have looked into this and it seems to me they use points in the random draw. I have done lots of sheets like the one above.

Henry Riffle up next just give me a minute to calculate. This is something to think about in the mean time.

In a random draw with 1 tag

10 guys with 20 point each would have 210 points
1000 guys with 1 point each would have 2000 points

Chance that 1 of the 10 guys draws with 20 points = 210/2210 = 9.5 %
Chance that 1 of the 1000 guys draws with 1 points = 2000/2210 = 90.5 %

The chances are greater for the low numbers guys as a hole because they have more people in the draw and more total points.

Individual odds guys with 20 points 21/2210= 0.95%
Individual odds guys with 1 points 2/2210= 0.0905%

20 points has almost 1 percent chance
1 point guy has 0.1 percent chance.
 

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I'm curious. Did you do the experiment over a 5 or 10 year period, or was it limited to only 1 or 2 years. The randomness of the draw would not fall into line with expected results because of the limited number of tags, but over the course of a longer time period you should see a pattern begin to develop that would correlate with the expected results.
 

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Henry Mountain Rifle
Points---------------Applicants-----------------Bonus-------------Random----------------------------------Random Group -----------------Chance 1 will draw in this group ------------People that drew
-------------------------------------Permit--------Permit-------------------------points in draw

18----------------------1------------------------1----------------------0----------------------------------- All Drew with 18
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------and 11 with 17 points
17----------------------26----------------------11--------------------0-------------------------------------------- 270---------------------- 0.66%
16----------------------51----------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 867---------------------- 2.12%
15----------------------57----------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 912 ----------------------2.23%
14----------------------114---------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 1710---------------------- 4.18%
13----------------------186---------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 2604---------------------- 6.37%
12----------------------264---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------3432---------------------- 8.40%
11----------------------286---------------------0----------------------4-------------------------------------------- 3432---------------------- 8.40%-------------------------------- 4
10----------------------314---------------------0----------------------3 --------------------------------------------3454---------------------- 8.45% --------------------------------3
9------------------------352---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------3520---------------------- 8.61% --------------------------------1
8------------------------349---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------3141---------------------- 7.69%
7------------------------372---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------2976---------------------- 7.28% --------------------------------1
6------------------------400---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------2800---------------------- 6.85%
5------------------------441---------------------0----------------------1-------------------------------------------- 2646---------------------- 6.47%
4------------------------521---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------2605---------------------- 6.37% --------------------------------1
3------------------------590---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------2360---------------------- 5.77% --------------------------------1
2------------------------662---------------------0----------------------0-------------------------------------------- 1986---------------------- 4.86%
1------------------------700---------------------0----------------------1 --------------------------------------------1400-----------------------3.43% --------------------------------1
0------------------------753---------------------0----------------------0 --------------------------------------------753------------------------ 1.84%
TOTALS------------ 6439 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 40868 ----------------------100.00%

As you can see the higher numbers are hit more often. But with the randomness it still can hit a lower some times. In this case the guy with 1 point and in the 3.43 got luckier than normal.
 

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No it was over a three year period but only 50 hunts, It was simple really, every point category got a mark for every drawn hunter and then I simply added them up. I wish I still had the exact numbers, but something crazy I remember stood out. 0 and 3 point holders torched the field in an abnormal amount of tags.
 

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There is no secret book. As linked, every hunt is posted and you can see how many points every single person had when they drew. The direct links to PDF's on the DWR Big Game page only have 2012 and 2013, but the data going back for years is publicly available for anyone that wants it.

You shouldn't confuse someone disagreeing with you for someone being mad at you. I disagree with your assessment of the draw 100%. However, I'm not the least bit angry at you. I have no reason to be.

One thing you are right about, though, is the chance that those with few points have a chance to draw keeps us all putting in for the draw.
 

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I remember a few years back they came out an said that they forgot to use the points in the random draw. Not sure what year, but it has happened before.
 

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5pointbull
Your odds of drawing as a group are not better than drawing as a single. They combine your points and divide by two.

So if one guy has 12 and one guy has 6 you get 9 chances at a low number.

If there are 10 tags and your not in the top pool you better have drawn the top 4 lowest numbers because if your low number is five you don't get the tag because you have two in your group and there is only five tags and four already drew. Your group gets passed up. Same thing if your in a group putting in the top bonus pool.

You in fact have less chances at a tag going in as a group.


Your odds always go up applying separate.
 

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I didn't say secret book, there is a big book that all DWR offices have that have this info, infact if someone wants to make a wager I will gladly meet them at the norther office and show them, if it has been posted on line I don't know about it I did my little experiment 3 years ago. But I know they have to keep a printed version. Loved being called a liar!
 

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Will someone please show me a site with specific draw counts per point stats, because I'll I'm seeing is max point stats still? That's what the big book showed, I have to say I did not take into account each applicant just how many drew for each category, it does make sense that if there are 200 zero point holders and 10 20 point holders that the two would equal tags drawn. But all I did was a simple run through the book. But I won't stand being called a liar, give me some credit for trying to better it, the system should be detailed in the hunting guide books each season. I want to see someone who has the time do a detailed spread sheet on the matter. Even I drew a bear tag last year with low points.
 

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That site shows all LE and OIAL hunts for last year.....

Progressive point percent chance of drawing, Zero thru max .... pretty strait up.
 

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Yes, but it shows a percentage, i think people should see a percentage, and specific #s if 10 people drew a tag with 4 points and zero drew a tag with 5. Than in reality for that specific year you had a better percentage, the percentage for the given year should reflect that #. Just saying.
 

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Yes, but it shows a percentage, i think people should see a percentage, and specific #s if 10 people drew a tag with 4 points and zero drew a tag with 5. Than in reality for that specific year you had a better percentage, the percentage for the given year should reflect that #. Just saying.
I don't think that ten guys with 4 points and no guys with five points drawing a tag is a result of the 4 point guys having a better percent chance drawing. That just happens to be the way the lottery worked out in that particular year.
If I had four points and was in the same point group as the ten that drew tags was my percent chance of drawing increased simply by being in the same point pool as them... I would say no.
 

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If you flip a coin three times and it comes up tails three times in a row the fourth flip still has a 50-50 chance of coming up tails.

No different than 4 guys with 5 points each having a 5% chance of drawing a tag. If three guys draw that tag the fifth person still has a 5% of drawing the tag. The odds are still 20:1 for that given year. The next year the odds could go up or down depending upon how many people put in for that tag.

Last year a person had better odds drawing the Beaver East Premium Elk tag with 15 points than they had drawing the Beaver East Any Weapon tag
 

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The fact is maybe my little research is semi crude, but it was research none the less. And showing detailed draw info as to who drew cannot hurt. The fact that the bonus point system is not explained from the DWR at least in detail (please post a link if there is one) is alarming, and leads one to wonder what is worth hiding on it. I have not lied one bit about what I've said. There is a book, there is sources in official positions gave info, I did conduct a simple research project, and I did email the division. I even had my boss who's in the state legislature look into it, I will not say what transpired from his phone calls, as I enjoy my job. I wish I could do a detailed study, but time doesn't permit it right now. I just thought I would share awareness of what I find because if it does have merit I think it should be addressed. There are many things that are alarming with this state and it's wildlife. Like the power of non state wildlife Mafia entities influencing the DWR, the influence of cattleman, sheep ranchers on wildlife populations. But that's for another day after I can effectively remove myself from this forums hate list with its members;-)
 
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