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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Man, this is gonna hurt this year. I have been crunching numbers and estimating miles from my house to southern Idaho, southern Utah and wherever else I might hunt, dividing the miles by the pitiful mpg I get out of my pickup, then multiplying that figure by the current $4.19 a gallon and the potential (almost certain) 5+....Fuuuuuuudge. This is not looking good.
 

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The increasing prices across the board is sure to hurt quite a few folks! I'm an optimistic realist, and I don't see how the bubble isn't going to pop again . . . this time it'll be much worse.
 

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The increasing prices across the board is sure to hurt quite a few folks! I'm an optimistic realist, and I don't see how the bubble isn't going to pop again . . . this time it'll be much worse.
While not good overall, the Uintah basin will likely see boom times again. The worldwide picture is too murky IMO to make any long term pronouncements positive or negative. I think food prices will be hit harder than energy over the next 6 months though.

I'm extra glad my new truck crushes it on the fuel economy.
 

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From what I've seen from the news today, I think we'll be lucky if it doesn't exceed 5$ a gallon, or more. Possibly a lot more. Not sure how it's going to effect my hunting plans yet this year. I wonder if food prices will have more people out hunting this year, however, gas prices might also keep some at home too. Who knows.
 

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Just look at it this way.

All those folks that people were complaining about over the last couple of years will now not be able to afford to get out into the woods or the fishing ponds, so less crowding.
 

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This is all crap. I hate to get on my soapbox here but OPEC could end this “crisis” in less than a month if they wanted to. But with oil at well over $100 per barrel, why would they want to?

Go back to April 2020 when OPEC significantly cut oil production because the price has bottomed out and they need to inflate their take again. It’s funny how so many people placed blame on current events (prior to the invasion) and completely ignored that the price increase for our fuel was set in motion before the democrats had even picked their candidate. These people are not our allies and we need to quit pretending or hoping they will be.

No, the cost of fuel will not impact my hunting plans this year. It certainly could in the future if the cost of things this year gets too extreme, however.
 

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Man, this is gonna hurt this year. I have been crunching numbers and estimating miles from my house to southern Idaho, southern Utah and wherever else I might hunt, dividing the miles by the pitiful mpg I get out of my pickup, then multiplying that figure by the current $4.19 a gallon and the potential (almost certain) 5+....Fuuuuuuudge. This is not looking good.
I am planning on going this weekend to chase Yotes just South of Cedar City, and.....I dunno if I can now! I work for a Gubment Facility, so I get paid on the 7th and 22nd, my 7th check didn't go as far as I thought. I think it's honestly only going to get worse by Fall too! I am starting to wonder if I can even chase Turkeys. Both my Cars (F150 and Traverse) aren't exactly sippers.
 

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Maybe this will finally cool off the Truck market somewhat. Orders are +7 months out atm, and prior to the rapid fuel cost rise, GM was projecting the shortage to last through 2023. Maybe $6 diesel will slow down the appetite some.

-DallanC
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
On the one hand, I'm REALLY glad I switched my Toyota Tundra 5.7L V8 at 4-12mpg out for my diesel F350. On the other hand, filling up that 42 gallon tank last Friday at $4.49 was...well, I'm still walking funny.
And it's only march. By the time Memorial Day Weekend kicks off high fuel price season every fill up will be followed by 2 hours of sobbing in the fetal position on the floor of the shower while "Torn" by Natalie Imbruglia plays in the background.
 

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The price per bbl is the replacement cost, not the shelf price it's being sold for. The first time OPEC did this (recently) 10 years ago in flooding the market was to drive down the price of oil due to the domestic oil shale boom throughout the Rocky Mountain basins and the Permian.

They essentially wanted to keep their market control because they can replace that oil cheaper than the US can. Wells in OPEC countries tend to flow on their own, whereas in North America they require some form of hydraulic stimulation (frac'ing). They also have less input for equipment needs and labor. A petroleum engineer in an OPEC country may be paid the equivalent in US dollars of $35,000 per year compared to the American petro eng at $175,000 per year. Then you have rig hands, tool hands, directional drillers, etc.

So, the reflective price at the pump is dependent on all the input costs to replace that bbl of oil in today's markets and economy with all the facets that affect it. Supply chain was disrupted months ago, and it affects that replacement price today.

Throw in an eastern European conflict/war as the wild card...
 

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Hard to imagine a scenario in which we don't exceed $5/gallon and inch towards $6. The jump alone in the last 10 days has been crazy.

We are already having to cut trips. We don't know what my wife's raise this year will be yet and we are part of the middle class that didn't change jobs during the pandemic = relatively stagnant salary. Our food budget was raised massively 3 months ago and it's looking like we'll either have to scale back meal quality or increase again within 3ish months.

We are well into our post-empire phase and the middle class will continued to get squeezed no matter who is president. Most of what we are experiencing is just predictable outcomes of an interconnected global economy.
 

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And it's only march. By the time Memorial Day Weekend kicks off high fuel price season every fill up will be followed by 2 hours of sobbing in the fetal position on the floor of the shower while "Torn" by Natalie Imbruglia plays in the background.
Yep. At least now I get ~800 miles on a tank. Good thing ptarmigan hunting is only 20 miles from my house now too. I ought to be able to make it to the end of the season this month before needing to give unenthusiastic consent at the pump again.
 

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And it's only march. By the time Memorial Day Weekend kicks off high fuel price season every fill up will be followed by 2 hours of sobbing in the fetal position on the floor of the shower while "Torn" by Natalie Imbruglia plays in the background.

I have to admit, that was dang funny.
 

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And what happens if we have another cyber attack on pipelines like last year? Do we really think Putin is "stable enough" to not escalate his non-military strategy against those boycotting them or supporting Ukraine? It's not just the war but Putin's absolute disregard for any sort of foreign stability that has me concerned. The pipeline was down for less than a week last year and had lingering affects. A few strategic cyber attacks during critical tourism season would have significant impacts to US quality of life.

And we had multiple leaks/spills last year. Take 8-10% of world supply off the market (at least for NATO countries) from here on and add any problems we've had in the recent past to the equation and the future looks a little stark.

Fingers crossed my pessimism is wrong. Maybe GasBuddy's prediction is correct and prices will drop after memorial day. But I'm not betting on it.
 

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I'm just glad that I have my airfare taken care of for my African hunt this year. I can see jet fuel prices going through the roof.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
Hard to imagine a scenario in which we don't exceed $5/gallon and inch towards $6. The jump alone in the last 10 days has been crazy.

We are already having to cut trips. We don't know what my wife's raise this year will be yet and we are part of the middle class that didn't change jobs during the pandemic = relatively stagnant salary. Our food budget was raised massively 3 months ago and it's looking like we'll either have to scale back meal quality or increase again within 3ish months.

We are well into our post-empire phase and the middle class will continued to get squeezed no matter who is president. Most of what we are experiencing is just predictable outcomes of an interconnected global economy.
Sounds like you are pretty "aware" of our situation. I hear young adults talking like we are just going through some temporary weird stuff and then normal life will resume and they will live the same old life that their parents and grandparents did. I wish I could be so naive. Maybe I'm just too pessimistic (likely so) but I feel like things are gonna get increasingly fooky from her on out.
 
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