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My question is how many points do you think it will take me to draw a mountain goat tag? I have 4 points right now. two years ago I talked to a guy who said he drew with 5 points and he knew another guy who drew with 6 and they were both hunting the unit I am putting in for. also how many points do you think it will take to draw an antelope tag I have 4 points and have been putting in for archery only.
 

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It depends to a great extent on which units you're putting in for, so it's kind of hard to help you without knowing what hunts you're putting in for.

derekp1999 has a spreadsheet on his website that can help you answer this question for each unit. It's a good resource.

More generally, you always have a small chance to draw a mountain goat tag, but to get to the top of the point pool, you'll most likely be waiting at least another decade, and maybe much more. It all depends on the unit.
 

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The ones that drew with 5 and 6 points sounds like they were in the bonus point pool and got lucky. You see that every year, people that have more points than most but are under the max and don't draw but someone with 0-5 points draws the tag.
 

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When they have the nanny hunts going like in the past, typically 8-9 points has been the bonus pool.
There is no nanny hunt offered on the Beaver unit this year. It will be interesting to see how this affects the odds of drawing the Willard Peak nanny hunt. I would guess that a few more people will apply for it this year than in years past, but who knows?
 

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For mountain goats-- I agree with Jonny's post and would add that many people saw that they could draw a nanny tag faster and goats have seen an increase in applicants, causing creep. 4 years down the road, it wouldn't surprise me to see nanny hunts take 10-12 points. Never base when you will draw off of what other people drew. The point creep is increasing and random luck can't be part of the equation for a hard to draw hunt.

As for the archery antelope tag you could already have draw that-- depending on the unit.

Sounds like you need to spend a little time researching the draw odds on the UDWR web page or one of the many draw odds sites.
 

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I'm with you there gdog except I have half a dozen less moose points than you. The more you learn about how many points you need to draw certain hunts the more disheartening the whole thing gets. Good chance I will never draw my oil moose hunt. I'll get one good le elk hunt in sometime in the next 5 years then move on to the easiest le draw of archery speed goats.
 

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Looking at last year's odd, there was no goat unit that drew in the bonus pool below 12 points. The one exception was the Willard nanny hunt which drew at 9 points for the bonus pool.

While, it sucks that you're basically in it a decade to draw a tag, mtn goat odds are far and away the best of the OIAL hunts.
 

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There are some sneaky good antelope hunts out there with great odds, but i'm not giving that secret up on a forum!! In a nutshell, as Packout said, you could be hunting already.
 

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With no nanny hunt on the Beaver, its going to push alot of high point holders into the remaining units. Expect last years odds to get thrown out the window this year.

-DallanC
 

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Unfortunately, 5 years ago when I finally started putting in for OIL species I did not choose mountain goat. But looking at the Beaver nanny tag odds from 2015, I just don't see the removal of that hunt having a major impact immediately. Of course, there 193 more people that applied for that hunt that will need to go into another draw over time, but most are lower point holders. The only hunt they can disrupt in the immediate is the Willard nanny hunt. If that Beaver nanny hunt is gone permanently, it will throw the odds off some over time, but not immediately. See the attached picture.
 

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True. 193 hunters switching units probably won't have a huge effect on most hunts, considering the fact that there were 5492 hunters who applied for goats last year.

I think most of those hunters will either switch over to the Willard nanny hunt, or stay on the Beaver and apply for the any goat hunt. I'm interested to see how it plays out.
 

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I think you are underestimating the effect. My wife had been trying to draw Box Elder peak but in 2014 they combined that with Timp. Because Timps odds were so bad we gave up on trying to draw the tag in our back yard. Decided to go for Beaver, early billy. According to her number of points and what it took to draw the previous year, we thought she was guaranteed to draw it. She did actually draw, but when we looked at the draw results instead of what we thought was guaranteed, so many other people switched units thinking the same thing, she ended up having a 1:3 chance... but luck was on her side.

Someone else who thought it was a slam dunk to draw that year was probably pissed when they saw how many other people jumped on it.

-DallanC
 

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I'm with Dallan. If those 193 applicants were applying for the Beaver nanny because of better odds vs. a billy hunt, I bet many of them jump over to the Willard nanny hunt. There were only 173 applicants for the Willard nanny hunt, so even if only half of the Beaver nanny applicants switch, that is going to really screw with the odds - both random and bonus. This year, there would be 10 applicants with 11 points and 1 applicant with 12 from Beaver. The highest point holder for the Willard nanny hunt will only have 11 points (and there is only 1 of them). What this means is that if the top point holders from Beaver jump to Willard, they will likely grab the bonus tags that the Willard applicants thought were coming to them. And to top it off, all the other lower point holders will screw with the Willard nanny random draw odds.

I see some disappointed people on the Willard side this fall...
 

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If you guys go back and look at my post, you'll see I stated they can throw off the Willard nanny hunt odds immediately.

For the billy tags they won't impact current odds for high point holders as nobody left in the Beaver nanny pool had high enough points to draw the billy tags anyway. They will still throw off the odds on billy hunts, just not for the current high point holders, which was where I was emphasizing my point. For high point holders, the odds won't change because they are already ahead of anyone left from the Beaver nanny pool. For those with 12 or less points, it will absolutely impact them down the road.
 

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Have we been given any reason why the nanny hunt on the Beaver unit wasn't offered this year, and do we have reason to believe it won't be offered in future years?

The impact this will have down the road will be relatively small if all returns to normal next year.
 

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Have we been given any reason why the nanny hunt on the Beaver unit wasn't offered this year, and do we have reason to believe it won't be offered in future years?

The impact this will have down the road will be relatively small if all returns to normal next year.
I had these same questions and thoughts. I would assume they stopped it this year due to population objectives and transplants. But I never heard anything indicating it was a permanent closure of the hunt. But then again, I'm not in the goat pool, so I haven't followed it that closely.
 

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Vanilla is correct. They transplanted some goats which got the herd to within the population objective so there was no need for the nanny hunt this year. The nanny hunt was not discontinued permanently, it will be back when needed.
 

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I think the other thing you have to remember is every year people who used to apply for billies realize they are much more likely to get a nanny tag and switch over. That happened 2 years ago on the beaver nanny hunt after a season that 6 points was in bonus pool territory and the overall draw odds were nearly 1:4. Similar thing happened with Henry cow bison hunts, they went from an 8-10 bonus pool to a 12-14 after the year so many of us got cow tags (in October 2012 they flew the unit and determined to add an additional 50 cow tags creating the late December cow hunt).
 
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