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Discussion Starter #1
This might be silly, but I was curious how the point system works.
If a person has say 12 points for deer, they Put in with the 12 points, but this would make the 13th app. Correct?

So does that put them in the 13 pt. class?

Anyone know how this works?
 

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They stay in the 12 pt class, you don't get the 13th point until after the draw takes place and then issue the points.
 

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It means you get 12 chances at a low number from your 12 points plus another chance for this years app giving you 13 chances to draw a low enough number to get a tag.
A guy with 13 points going into this years draw would have 14 chances at getting a low number.
 

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The point system is a way to get to MAX points. It does not mean that if you have ten points then your name is in the hat ten times. Your name is in only once no matter how many points you have.

Getting points only builds you towards MAX points. Once you have MAX points you have a 50/50 chance of getting your tag as half the tags in a unit are given to MAX point holders. The rest of the tags go into the hat where everyone has an equal chance at them, no matter how many points you have.
 

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That's not correct brettb. Your name is in the draw for as many points as you have plus one. So if you have 100 people apply and the average is 10 points there will be 1100 names in the pot. If you have 14 points you will have 15 in 1100 odds at the random side of the draw. this is 1.36% chance at drawing. If you have 4 points you will have 5 in 1100 chance or 0.45% chance of drawing. As you can see your odds on that random side are a bit better with all those points, but not by much relatively speaking.
 

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The point system is a way to get to MAX points. It does not mean that if you have ten points then your name is in the hat ten times. Your name is in only once no matter how many points you have.

Getting points only builds you towards MAX points. Once you have MAX points you have a 50/50 chance of getting your tag as half the tags in a unit are given to MAX point holders. The rest of the tags go into the hat where everyone has an equal chance at them, no matter how many points you have.
Not exactly! While it's true that you end up with only one number (your lowest) in the public draw, prior to the public draw you do get one chance to draw that number for every point you have earned, plus one additional chance for your current application. And that number is used for the public draws before and after the 50/50 rule is applied. So the applicants with the higher points ALWAYS have the better chance to draw the permits. Of course, that's the way the bonus point system works. The preference point system is a little different.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
people with less than 21 points will never be able to achieve "Max points" for it goes up 1 pt each year they do the draw.

Pretty sure...

I think the only people with Max points would be the couple still trying for that antelope island deer permit, with no bonus permit available. Lol
 

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You guys believe what you want. I know what I know, and I know where I got my info
The DWR did a lot better job of explaining how Bonus points work in the drawing in previous versions of the guidebook. Here's the explanation from the 2010 version:

How your bonus points work
Fifty percent (odd numbers are rounded
down) of the permits for each hunt unit number
are set aside for applicants who have the most
bonus points.

Before the drawing takes place, a computer
randomly assigns a drawing number to you for
each species you applied for. The computer also
randomly assigns a drawing number to you for
each bonus point you have for the species you're
applying for. After the computer has randomly
assigned your numbers to you, it takes the lowest
number you received, and that's the number you'll
use in the drawing. The lower your number, the
better your chance at drawing a permit.
As far as how many random numbers you'll be assigned, I'll trust what the written law says:

R657-62-8 said:
(5)(a) Each applicant receives a random drawing number for:
(i) each species applied for; and
(ii) each bonus point for that species.
 

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The point system is a way to get to MAX points. It does not mean that if you have ten points then your name is in the hat ten times. Your name is in only once no matter how many points you have.

Getting points only builds you towards MAX points. Once you have MAX points you have a 50/50 chance of getting your tag as half the tags in a unit are given to MAX point holders. The rest of the tags go into the hat where everyone has an equal chance at them, no matter how many points you have.
For the people in the "Max Point" pool, your draw odds are based on how many other people are also in the "max point" pool. It's not necessarily 50/50.

Simple example:

60 total permits = 30 permits set aside for Max Point holders.

Point distribution
11 points - 2 applicants
10 points - 5 applicants
09 points - 9 applicants
08 points - 10 applicants
07 points - 15 applicants
06 points - 20 applicants
05 points - 22 applicants
04 points - 15 applicants
03 points - 30 applicants
02 points - 44 applicants
01 points - 76 applicants
00 points - 128 applicants

The "Max Point" pool will be people with 7 points or more. Since there are only 26 applicants with 8 or more points, and 30 permits set aside for the max point holders, all applicants with 8 or more points will receive permits. (Edit: So 8 or more points = 100% chance of drawing) Since there are 4 remaining reserved permits, the people with 7 points will have a 4 in 15 or 27% chance of drawing.

For the 30 remaining permits, everyone who has not received a permit (all applicants with 0-6 points and anyone with 7 points that didn't draw in the "Max Point" pool drawing) will receive a random number for each of their points AND their current application. Each applicant then enters the drawing using their lowest assigned number only. Permits are then awarded starting with the lowest number until all permits are gone.

So more points = more random number = better chance to be assigned a low number = better chance of getting a permit.

Here's the portion of the Law that show how the bonus permits are allocated:

R658-62-8 said:
(4)(a) Fifty percent of the permits for each hunt unit will be reserved for applicants with the greatest number of bonus points.
(b) Based on the applicant's first choice, the reserved permits will be designated by a random drawing number to eligible applicants with the greatest number of bonus points for each species.
(c) If reserved permits remain, the reserved permits will be designated by a random number to eligible applicants with the next greatest number of bonus points for each species.
(d) The procedure in Subsection (c) will continue until all reserved permits are issued or no applications for that species remain.
(e) Any reserved permits remaining and any applicants who are not selected for reserved permits will be returned to the applicable drawing.
 

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I love this type of discussion. While brettb didn't exactly have his facts straight, he was right about one thing: If you don't have max points, you wish your odds were better.

I respect those that brought the hard facts (believe me, I ran a regression test and posted about it last year to prove out the draw odds), but I'll bet that brettb is more fun to have in deer camp. :cool:
 

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I love this type of discussion. While brettb didn't exactly have his facts straight, he was right about one thing: If you don't have max points, you wish your odds were better.

I respect those that brought the hard facts (believe me, I ran a regression test and posted about it last year to prove out the draw odds), but I'll bet that brettb is more fun to have in deer camp. :cool:
+1000
Why is everyone being so nice lately?
Just think, if Lonetree would have just presented the facts in the first place instead of calling everyone a stupid retard for not knowing the facts.
He probably would have gotten more support.-O,-
 
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