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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
What would you do with 18 elk points on a Monroe permit? Is it worth trying to draw an early rifle or would the muzzleloader hunt be worthwhile? The muzzleloader hunt is drawable, the early rifle is really getting some point creep.
 

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The muzzy would be a fantastic hunt.
 

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With the ML Scope change expect alot of rifle people with more points to jump ship. I'll bet 18pts isnt near enough now for ML seasons.


-DallanC
 

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Looking at the dates, I would go with rifle.

Rifle: Sept 17-25

Muzzleloader: Sept 26 - Oct 7

The Monroe Unit lowered the age class to 6.5 this year, so there may be some additional permits given away this year.

I doubt a lot of people will jump ship to the ML, because of the dates.
If the dates were like last year, I would bet that more people would jump ship.

Full Disclosure: I put in for Monroe NR Early Rifle this year, in hopes they give out 3 NR tags rather than the traditional 1.
 

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With the ML Scope change expect alot of rifle people with more points to jump ship. I'll bet 18pts isnt near enough now for ML seasons.

-DallanC
I don't have a clue how many people will switch from rifle to muzzleloader, but it seems unlikely that you will draw a bonus muzzleloader tag for the 2016 season. If all of last year's applicants come back, there will be 1 with 19 points and 5 with 18 points (not including you) competing for a couple of bonus tags. One person jumping in ahead would really change things if two bonus tags are offered like last year.

It's difficult to say how much sooner you'll get your tag applying for muzzleloader vs. rifle in the long term. It will be interesting to see how much impact the ML Scope change has when the draw stats come out later this year.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
This isn't for me it's for someone I know, I am in no where near the position to draw so I didn't really know what to tell them. It seemed like last year during the muzzy hunt the Bulls were actually bugling more but it looks like the dates will be different this year and the rifle is definetly the better hunt. I do remember they changed the age objective so I'm expecting more tags this year to be released as well. The early rifle had over 1700 people put in for 4 permits last year, I thought that was pretty amazing. I was just looking at how the point creep is getting and didn't know whether it would be worth them sticking with the early rifle in hopes than more tags are allocated and people jump ship to muzzleloader or if muzzleloader would be the hunt worth trying. Last year I would have said yes, this ear without knowing the amount of tags or how the muzzy scope will affect things I don't really know what to tell them.
 

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Last years the bulls were bugling clear thru the first week of October. I shot my bull on the open rifle on the 5th, and he was talking a bunch. And, heard others after that. So they could still be quite active for this years muzzle date.
 

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At the current rate of applicants and permits,
18 points wont touch an early rifle bonus tag on Monroe for another decade....
 

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At the current rate of applicants and permits,
18 points wont touch an early rifle bonus tag on Monroe for another decade....
Even longer than that... If he has 18 points now, there are 77 applicants with more points than him and 49 equal with him at 18 points. Thats 20 years under those numbers before his pool of 49 hunters gets a shot at a bonus tag.

He would have a 1 in 6 chance at a muzzy bonus tag. For me its a no brainer until we see what effects the scope change will have on the odds. His best odds will still be with the muzzy.
 

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Early rifle is a long ways out, unless he can get lucky. Like was stated, 77 applicants with more points than this person. 4 bonus tags given per year.

Muzzy is a possibility, but not guarantee. Based strictly on last year's numbers (which are likely to change this year), there will be 1 person with more points and 5 with same points...for 2 bonus tags.
 

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It will be interesting to see if the tag numbers go up or not. When the WB voted on that age objective John Bair stated , just because the age class was dropping to match the Dutton and Fishlake it did not mean more tags would be given for the Monroe. Time will tell.
 

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18 points is a lot. Me thinks I'd go kill a monster bull on another unit......unless I had some special reason to hold out for the Monroe. -------SS
 

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Does your friend want to hunt before he's up for retirement? Look at the success rates. Early rifle averages about 94% over the past 3 years. Muzzy is at 84%. That would make up my mind right there. The bulls will be bugling into the second week of Oct, and with the later dates, there is a better chance for cooler weather which lights a fire under the elk. Early rifle can be a warm hunt. It's great no doubt with a rifle still, but the rut isn't as intense at times.

I'd go muzzy!!
 

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Monroe

For 2016, 18 points you will not go wrong with the following IMO:
Boulder Muzzleloader
Fillmore Pahvant Late
Beaver Late
Southwest Desert Muzzleloader

It looks like you should have a good chance at the Monroe muzzleloader in the next 3 years along with the Beaver Muzzleloader and the Fillmore Pahvant Muzzleloader.

I wish I had your dilemma. Good luck! SS
 

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For 2016, 18 points you will not go wrong with the following IMO:
Boulder Muzzleloader
Fillmore Pahvant Late
Beaver Late
Southwest Desert Muzzleloader

It looks like you should have a good chance at the Monroe muzzleloader in the next 3 years along with the Beaver Muzzleloader and the Fillmore Pahvant Muzzleloader.

I wish I had your dilemma. Good luck! SS
Welcome to the forum. Its about time we had another SS around here.----SS
 

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Good dilemma to have!

Like many have already mentioned the early rifle tag is still a long ways out (19 to 32 years) based off 2015 data. The muzzleloader is only a couple years away (1 to 3 years) but who knows how the new scope ruling will affect that. It wouldn't surprise me a bit to see some of those guys with 19 or 20 points jump over to the muzzleloader tag now... although the later season dates could temper that a bit. And we'll just have to wait and see if they add any tags at all to go with lowering the age objective... my money says they do not even if by the letter of law they should.

Unless your (friend's) heart is set on the Monroe I'd add the Book Cliffs early rifle, Boulder muzzleloader, La Sal multi-season, and Fishlake/1000 Lakes multi-season. These should all draw this year with 18 points (I hedge my get on the Boulder muzzleloader just because of the new scope thing though... I think the muzzleloader draws are going to be a mess this year).
 
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